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Regional climate simulation of the 1998 summer flood over East Asia

机译:1998年东亚夏季洪水的区域气候模拟

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摘要

In this study, the severe flood case over East Asia during the 1998 summer was simulated using a regional climate model (SNURCM) with 60 km horizontal resolution (EX60), and the model performance in reproducing the extreme climate events was evaluated. An experiment with higher horizontal resolution of 20 km (EX20) was also performed in order to assess the impact of increased resolution on precipitation simulation of the severe flood. The model reproduced the severe precipitation events occurring in central China in June. In EX60, the temporal and spatial variations of the abnormal Meiyu monsoon fronts, which were well observed were also simulated reasonably except in southern China. The area-averaged daily precipitation and surface air temperatures were underestimated, but their temporal evolutions were in good agreement with observation. In the higher resolution experiment (EX20), simulated downward solar radiation, latent heat flux and convective rain were increased in the major severe rain area over the Yangtze River Basin. The increased precipitation in EX20, which was attributed mainly to the increase of convective rain, resulted in the enhanced precipitation intensity, but only slightly affected total precipitation amounts. The improvement in the higher horizontal resolution simulation appeared in precipitation resulting, in particular, from increased convective activity due to increased latent heat flux at the surface. Nevertheless, the model had significant precipitation bias in some areas with disagreement between the simulated precipitation patterns and distribution, and the observations. The model also had surface air temperature bias resulting from cold biases of the land surface model. With horizontal resolution increased to 20 km, the convective and non-convective precipitation was increased for the late afternoon and early evening time, increasing the total precipitation slightly.
机译:在这项研究中,使用具有60 km水平分辨率(EX60)的区域气候模型(SNURCM)模拟了1998年夏季东亚的严重洪灾案例,并评估了该模型在再现极端气候事件中的性能。为了评估分辨率提高对大洪水降水模拟的影响,还进行了水平分辨率为20 km(EX20)的实验。该模型再现了6月在中国中部发生的严重降水事件。在EX60中,除了中国南部以外,还合理模拟了异常观测到的梅雨季风锋的时空变化。面积平均日降水量和地表气温被低估了,但它们的时间演变与观测结果吻合良好。在高分辨率实验(EX20)中,长江流域主要的强降雨区模拟的向下太阳辐射,潜热通量和对流雨量增加。 EX20中降水的增加主要是由于对流雨的增加,导致降水强度增加,但对总降水量的影响很小。更高水平分辨率模拟的改进出现在降水中,特别是由于对流活动的增加,这是由于表面潜热通量增加所致。然而,该模型在某些地区存在明显的降水偏差,模拟的降水模式和分布与观测值之间存在分歧。该模型还具有由陆地表面模型的冷偏差引起的地表空气温度偏差。随着水平分辨率增加到20 km,对流和非对流降水在下午晚些时候和傍晚时间增加,总降水量略有增加。

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